Where are the investment opportunities in the post-epidemic era?
Time： 2023-03-09 16:22
After New Year's Day, the first wave of COVID-19 infection quickly peaked, and the policy of stabilizing growth continued to work, allowing the domestic macroeconomic recovery to enter the second stage.
What are the results of domestic post-epidemic recovery? What are the clear and positive macro signals? Which industries are worthy of attention and investment in the near future?
This issue of Ivan Consulting will focus on the domestic economic situation and talk about investment opportunities in the post-epidemic era in China.
1、 Since February, domestic macro area pole signals have been frequent
The "Report on the Implementation of China's Monetary Policy in the Fourth Quarter of 2022" issued by the Central Bank on February 24 said that a prudent monetary policy should be precise and powerful, and focus on supporting the expansion of domestic demand.
After the New Year's Day, the first wave of infection across the country has rapidly peaked, and the trend of consumption repair is more clear. The sales of catering, film, tourism and commodities reached a new high at the Spring Festival in January, with obvious repair.
Steady real estate policy, adhere to the principle of "no speculation in real estate". Driven by the marginal improvement of real estate policy, residents' demand for improved housing has been supported. The ice-breaking of real estate sales starts from the second-hand housing market. Subsequently, the popularity of the second-hand housing market may drive the sales of first-hand houses.
From the perspective of macro fundamentals, policy-driven and consumption recovery began in October 2022, which is the beginning of the economic bottoming and recovery cycle; According to the historical cycle, it will enter the second stage after a quarter.
Now is the second stage of this round of recovery, and some investment deployment can be made.
2、 Pay attention to the post-epidemic consumer recovery industry - tourism, hotels and catering
In the post-epidemic recovery stage, promoting consumption is the focus of recent central policy. During the Spring Festival, consumer demand erupted intensively, and the recovery trend was further verified. At present, the consumer industry is still in the "recovery" stage and has not reached the real "recovery" state. We can now consider allocating assets to wait for the time of comprehensive recovery.
In the short term, catering demand will take the lead in repairing. With the expected improvement of economic activities, business and banquet demand is expected to increase further.
According to the official website of the Visa Center of the United States Embassy in China, the number of US visa processing points in Shanghai and Guangzhou has been approximately full as of July 31, and the appointment can not be made temporarily in August and September.
The Ctrip report shows that the number of orders for domestic free travel products booked on the Ctrip platform from February to March increased by 450% year-on-year, and the number of bookings for group travel increased by 189% year-on-year. The European Union, South Korea and other countries cancelled entry restrictions, China and Maldives signed a visa-free agreement, and international travel restrictions eased.
The gradual recovery of tourism has also driven the hotel to recover. The demand for tourism accumulated in the past three years continues to be released during holidays. It is still the off-season of tourism in previous years. The order volume of Ctrip and other websites has exceeded expectations. After entering the peak season, hotel prices may be higher.
3、 Digital economy and new energy vehicles taking the domestic alternative route
Looking at the strategic direction of the country, on October 26, 2022, the report of the 20th National Congress of the People's Republic of China focused on science and technology and security, and proposed "to safeguard the new development pattern with a new security pattern". Under this guidance, we can infer that the policy is good for "security"+"technology", which means that the technology industry should vigorously develop domestic alternative routes and build a moat for China's technology security. In 2023, such industries can focus on the digital economy and new energy vehicles.
The evolution of domestic AI has accelerated the development of digital economy, and domestic and foreign technology giants have actively deployed, such as ChatGPT, which has just exploded.
The development of the digital economy is inseparable from basic hardware, basic software, application software, information security, etc. The localization trend of this series of industrial chains is clear, and domestic substitution will accelerate.
New energy vehicles and low-carbon economy behind them
These two are the top priorities of the current modernization construction. Many provinces have made clear the requirements for the allocation and storage of new energy, driving the expansion of domestic demand.
Although after December 31, 2022, the purchase of new energy vehicles will no longer enjoy subsidies, relevant policies have been issued across the country to support the consumption of new energy vehicles by means of issuing consumer vouchers and stimulating replacement, which effectively leverages the consumption needs of potential consumer groups.
Therefore,IAN suggested that in the near future, China should pay attention to the post-epidemic consumption recovery industry, focusing on tourism, hotels and catering; As well as the digital economy and new energy vehicles taking the domestic alternative route.