The latest trend of the Federal Reserve! Cross-border companies can settle foreign exchange within one week to increase earnings.
Time： 2023-03-09 16:25
On February 2, the Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point interest rate increase at its interest rate meeting, which also eased the expression of the overall inflation of the United States.
Just when the market thought that the interest rate increase would stop completely in the second quarter and enter the next stage, a US non-farm employment data report released on February 4 gave the market a blow.
But for cross-border enterprises, there is wool to collect.
Ivan Consulting will analyze the transmission logic of the US economic data mapped to the macro level, as well as the advantages of cross-border enterprises in the recent market.
01 What is the US non-farm employment data?
The number of non-farm workers is a measure of the number of American workers, representing the vast majority of the American workforce.
This data report is an important indicator for the Federal Reserve to assess the overall economic situation of the United States and then adjust monetary policy.
As the most sensitive monthly economic indicator in the market, investors can see many important trend information from this report.
02 What can we read from this report?
The number of new jobs in the United States in January was 517000, far exceeding the market expectation of 187000;
The total number of non-agricultural employment in the United States in January was 155073000, 2.702 million more than the 152371000 in February 2020 before the outbreak of the epidemic;
The US unemployment rate in January was 3.4%, the lowest since May 1969. Hourly wages are still rising at a year-on-year growth rate of 4.4%.
These data indicate that the US employment market is more than expected.
The employment market is so hot, indicating that the demand of the labor market has been rising steadily; The situation of "demand exceeds supply" of labor force will continue to promote the further growth of workers' wages.
When more and more people get jobs and higher salaries, more and more people will start to spend; The increase in consumption will further solidify the trend of rising prices, and will also keep inflation high.
This obviously runs counter to the expectations just released by the Federal Reserve on February 2. It can be said that the dove faction has suffered a heavy setback!
Such a data report has dealt a heavy blow to the confidence of the Federal Reserve in reducing interest rates by the end of 2023.
Now, at the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in March, the possibility of raising interest rates by 50 basis points cannot be ruled out (it was originally believed that the interest rate increase by 25 basis points in March was inevitable), and the peak interest rate may go higher than expected.
03 Cross-border enterprises: seize the opportunity to collect wool
The expected increase in interest rate by the Federal Reserve will lead to some support for the US dollar index.
After the release of the non-agricultural data on February 4, the Federal Reserve officials have the trend of collectively setting off hawks.
For cross-border enterprises, the RMB exchange rate is worthy of attention.
The current situation will cause the RMB/USD to enter into a volatile state, with the operating range of 6.79-6.95 in the last eight days, which will be higher than before.
The subsequent fluctuations will depend on the US CPI data released on February 14 to determine the next trend.
In view of the judgment on the trend of RMB exchange rate, Ivan suggested that:
In the near future, the offshore enterprises can seize the rebound of the short-term US dollar against the RMB exchange rate to settle foreign exchange, in order to increase earnings.
04 US austerity is coming
From the macro perspective, the impact of the US tightening on Chinese enterprises going to sea in 2023 is coming soon. It is suggested to prepare psychologically and physically.
Bloomberg's prediction model shows that the probability of the United States falling into recession in 2023 will reach 100%.
According to historical experience, the economy will hit the bottom only after the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, possibly in 2024.
In 2023, inflation in the United States will gradually slow down under the contraction of the Federal Reserve at the expense of economic growth;
However, China's external demand is extremely sensitive to fluctuations, so exports may be affected to a certain extent, forming a situation in which both volume and price fall.
Market entities, such as enterprises going to sea, must make corresponding psychological and measure preparations in advance.